Google's New AI Booking, HVS's 4.5% for 2026, and the 98% Abandonment

Google has flipped a switch: US travelers can now book a hotel directly in AI Mode, without jumping to a traditional search results page. The launch partners are the usual heavyweights: Booking.com, Choice, Expedia, Hilton, IHG, Marriott, Priceline and Wyndham. The merchant of record stays with the hotel or platform, so the booking flow itself isn't a revolution. The real shift is that AI becomes the checkout counter, not just the recommendation engine. That changes who owns the customer relationship.

At the same time, HVS is forecasting a 4.5% RevPAR increase for 2026 in the US. That's not a boom, but it's steady. And yet, the stat that should keep revenue managers up at night comes from the same report: 98% of ready-to-book travelers abandon before finishing. Yes, you read that right. Nearly every genuinely motivated customer walks away.

So what gives? The friction isn't in the search, it's in the booking flow itself. Long forms, slow payment steps, too many clicks. This is where AI can actually step in: not to pick a hotel, but to finish the job. I see a real opportunity for hotels that simplify their own direct booking process, because Google's AI is happy to send the customer, but if your engine drops the ball, that 98% becomes your problem. The brands that tighten their funnel now will be the ones who turn that 4.5% into a bigger slice of their own market.